Capital · industry pre-position

What it costs to stand up — and what it costs to wait

Two different checks. The field is a mid-hundreds-of-millions campaign. Pre-positioning for offtakers is a low-tens to ~$90 M decision. Missing the first clean paste lots is the expensive error.

Low field

$208 M

Base field

$353 M

High field

$606 M

Matplotlib stacked capital chart — Fig. 1 — Matplotlib. First commercial field, 8 wells / 8 columns.

Matplotlib pre-position spend — Fig. 7 — Matplotlib. Minimum offtaker pre-position before first cargo.

First-field stack (USD millions)

Line	Low	Base	High
Drillship campaign (120 d + mob)	45	70	110
8 wells + Ti stems + laterals	48	80	140
8 U3DCP columns printed / deployed	18	32	55
Subsea slurry + riser	22	40	70
Surface paste plant (vessel conversion)	28	50	90
Permitting / EIA / baseline science	12	22	40
Contingency & working capital	35	59	101
Total	208	353	606

Minimum offtaker pre-position (base)

Per major custom smelter / trader: about $91 M. Sector-wide over five years: roughly $1.0–2.8 B if copper, zinc, precious and cobalt circuits all move. That is inventory, trials and options — not building a ridge field.

Lab & pilot concentrate tests$4 M
Smelter trial lots$9 M
Offtake LOIs / options$35 M
Port & paste handling$18 M
Strategic inventory$22 M
Legal / ISA watch$3 M

Matplotlib cost curve — Fig. 4 — Matplotlib. Indicative $/t Cu-eq versus terrestrial and bulk SMS.

Matplotlib grade comparison — Fig. 2 — Matplotlib. Zoned paste versus VMS mill feed and bulk SMS.